Nvidia is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday after the market close. The company’s results will provide insights into how it is navigating the impact of China’s DeepSeek AI model, which caused Nvidia to experience the largest single-day market value loss in stock market history last month. Ahead of the report, Nvidia’s stock dropped 2.8% to $126.63 on Tuesday, continuing Monday’s 3% loss.
These declines come amid a broader pullback in tech stocks due to investor concerns about President Donald Trump’s economic agenda. The Nasdaq declined about 1% on both Monday and Tuesday, closing at its lowest level since late November. Analysts expect Nvidia to report $38.1 billion in revenue and $0.85 adjusted earnings per share, according to FactSet data.
These figures would break records set the previous quarter and represent year-over-year revenue growth of 72% and profit growth of 64%. However, this would still mark the slowest top and bottom line growth for Nvidia since April 2023. Nvidia’s datacenter unit, which includes the graphics processing units powering most generative AI models, is forecasted to generate $33.5 billion in sales, representing 82% year-over-year growth—the weakest in seven quarters.
Nvidia’s fourth-quarter earnings preview
Despite the slowing pace, Nvidia’s growth remains impressive compared to the 4% revenue and 10% profit expansion recently reported by other large-cap companies. Analysts remain optimistic about Nvidia stock despite the recent hold.
The average price target among the 68 analysts tracked by FactSet stands at $175, indicating a 38% upside from Nvidia’s Tuesday share price. Bank of America analysts led by Vivek Arya predict that Wednesday’s earnings call “could mark the trough in investor sentiment,” maintaining a $190 price target for Nvidia. Wedbush analysts led by Dan Ives remarked in a Tuesday note that “tomorrow is a massive day” for global markets, which are “heavily skewed negative right now.”
Nvidia has become a symbol of this decade’s AI revolution as a top designer of technology training large-language models.
The company is expected to capture about 95% of the $158 billion global GPU market in 2025, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. This dominant market share fueled Nvidia’s stock surge, making it one of the top-performing stocks of 2023 and 2024 on the S&P 500. However, Nvidia has not outperformed the broader market recently, dipping 3.1% over the last six months compared to the S&P 500’s 6.9% return.
Nvidia cofounder and CEO Jensen Huang has downplayed negative investor reactions to the DeepSeek release, stating last week that the idea AI spending will slow down is the “complete opposite” of the truth.
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