The Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision has the potential to significantly impact mortgage rates.
Please see below for context ahead of next week's #FederalReserve policy meeting:
Officials' interest rate expectations, including relative to what #markets expect.
Additional details on market pricing.
The Fed's latest macroeconomic projections.
More to follow.#economy pic.twitter.com/JegasOq9EU— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) September 11, 2024
While markets may have already factored in the expected cut, the move could still lead to lower rates in the coming months. Josh Green, a mortgage loan originator at Barrett Financial, believes there’s a “100% chance” of a Fed funds rate cut.
Current Market expectations for Fed Rate Cuts…
-Sep 18, 2024: 25 bps cut to 5.00-5.25%
-Nov 7, 2024: 50 bps cut to 4.50-4.75%
-Dec 18, 2024: 25 bps cut to 4.25-4.50%
-Jan 25, 2025: 50 bps cut to 3.75-4.00%
-Mar 19, 2025: 25 bps cut to 3.50-3.75%https://t.co/l5IYmkf6Ih pic.twitter.com/Y2wZRHE4r5
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) September 12, 2024
“If Powell indicates the economy is weaker than expected or they’re considering a bigger cut, mortgage rates might drop further as they price in those future reductions,” says Green. Assuming the Fed achieves a soft landing, which is historically rare but plausible, Green believes rates could stay low for a while, potentially dropping to the 4.5% to 5.5% range. Debbie Calixto, sales manager at Loan Depot, cautions that substantial drops may not occur until after the November Fed meeting.
Those calling for a 50 bps rate cut next week should take a look back at January 2001 & September 2007 when the Fed started cutting cycles w/ a 50 bps move. If the Fed feels the need to go big because of a weakening economy, that's not bullish.
Video: https://t.co/n8CneskHDT pic.twitter.com/HYLTFJB1eD
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) September 9, 2024
“If there’s confidence in another rate cut in November, we could see another decrease in mortgage rates possibly in October,” Calixto says. Several factors influence mortgage rate fluctuations, according to Steve Hill, a mortgage broker at SBC Lending. These include economic strength, employment levels, inflation, and political uncertainty and global events.
The decision to act now or wait depends on individual financial situations and goals. Acting now could mean less competition, but waiting might lead to lower rates and increased housing demand. “We currently have a low supply of houses.
Fed’s influence on mortgage decisions
When interest rates drop, we expect an influx of eager buyers,” says Calixto. This increased demand could offset the benefits of waiting for lower rates.
Calixto shares her experience helping a couple buy their first home with an FHA loan nine months ago. Though interest rates were high then, the couple is now refinancing to save over $400 per month, showing how acting now can lead to quick equity gains and future benefits from refinancing. While acting now can be favorable for some, waiting might make more sense for others.
Green suggests that it might be too early for homeowners with rates near 8% or a VA loan, but cautions against waiting too long. He recommends a balanced approach: it might be worth refinancing now to lock in savings of at least $300 per month, as some loan types, like VA loans, allow for easy refinancing again if rates continue to fall. Experts advise against trying to time the market.
“Gauging future mortgage rate movements and waiting with hopes that rates will fall could delay your ability to start creating wealth,” warns Calixto. Instead, make decisions based on your current situation and what will benefit you most now. Consult multiple mortgage lenders to understand your options and create a solid plan, typically considering a rate drop of 0.75% or more.
For more insights, consult with financial experts and stay updated on market developments.





